Thoughts

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Avoiding Nice

I have nothing in common with a person who thinks it’s a good idea to hold on to META, for example, through a -70% decline because “it’s still a good company” or “I believe in

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Motivation by Frustration

Working at my first job after college in 2007, I recall getting the idea to start a fund. It was mostly a “that would be cool” kind of idea. Very wishy washy and dreamy. My

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Harvest Season

Fall is here. Crops are ready to be harvested. All of the hard work farmers have done since the spring is about to pay off.  Pumpkins, turnips, squash, zucchini, beets, eggplant, celery, apples, cranberries, grapes,

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Words Cannot Save You

When people get nervous they embrace many unhealthy remedies. They do all they can to avoid feeling nervous. In the markets, a popular remedy is talking. People like to talk and talk and talk. And

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Pareidolia

Bulls and Bears suffer from the same affliction — pareidolia. That is, seeing something, typically a pattern or image, that isn’t there. Examples of pareidolia: Bulls see the current equities chart pattern as one that

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"Like Kids"

I had never read Lord of the Flies, but recently I’ve been intrigued by the old classics, so I picked it up. Early in the book, as the boys collect their bearings, they agree to

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Make Room

Too much of one thing can ruin the whole thing. A chef must be mindful of the ingredients s/he uses so as to not overpower the dish with any one flavor. A weightlifter mustn’t overtrain

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Eventually…

Investing takes patience. And faith. Faith that opportunities will eventually come. From where? We don’t know. When? We don’t know that either. Many people, uncomfortable with eventually, develop and believe in narratives to address this

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Show Your Work

The hardest thing is sticking around. Surviving in the investing business, hell in any business, is a success in and of itself. Navigating the market, employees, customers and most importantly, yourself, is tough. In the

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Bubbles are Becoming the Norm

We don’t need an advanced degree to know that markets have gotten more bubbly lately. For those of us who watch the markets regularly, we’ve see an increasing number of parabolic moves over the past

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Too Many Metrics

I don’t have performance-standards for my trading. No goals for annualized growth figures or anything like that. That’s a recipe for stress and failure. I simply start with “how much am I willing to lose?”.

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Excess Gets Washed Away

Forest fires clear the way for new growth. Storms remove stale air out of a region. Predators cull the weak, which helps control overpopulation. Bear markets purge greedy speculators and those that gather an abundance

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Medicating the Chaos

Deep down, we all know cycles are natural and something to expect when playing the markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, investment strategies — hell, everything in the cosmos — experiences cycles. Some cycles flow calmly

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Research is Overrated

This weekend I was speaking with a young trader and a question about research inevitably came up. “What research are you working on to maintain your edge in the markets?” My answer: Following your system

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Distaste for Waste

Most people gather too much sludge in their portfolios. They start out with a few mutual funds and ETFs then, before they know it, a couple dozen stocks make their way in too. Where did

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Ditch the Script

The answer to what the markets will do cannot be found in multiple choice answers A through D. The question to ask is not “what will the markets do over the next 12-24 months?”, but

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