It’s confusing out there these days. There’s so much information about how the economy is doing, what inflation will do, whether jobs are coming back and the like.
Trying to piece all if this (often dated) information together about what the markets will do in the future seems like a surefire way to misread the trends — making capitalizing on opportunities and managing risk (the whole point of investing) difficult.
There’s another way though. The markets themselves provide clarity. They don’t lie to you. In a world of confusion and over-analyzing, markets provide a sense of calm and honesty. At Melissinos Trading, price is the only that goes into our models.
What is “inflation” going to do?
I don’t know, but I know what crude oil, agricultural markets, livestock and metals are doing. I analyze their trends directly, not 3-6 month old fundamental reports about each market’s supply and demand.
The markets are hard enough to navigate when having current information and a clear mind. Clouding the information and second-guessing the viability of it, especially when it disagrees with the current market trends, are a recipe for disaster. To succeed and sleep at night, we must know what we’re going to do before we do it.
Back to the inflation topic. Today, I hold long positions in energy markets as well as some agriculturals and metals. I hold some shorts too.
Clear:
Unclear:
Don’t ask me what “inflation” will do. I don’t know. I don’t worry about big important topics like that. I worry about what I can see in front of me. I worry about managing risk; about the current trends in the markets themselves. That’s my focus. The now.
The now is clear.