Seeing is Believing
Changing someones mind with words doesn’t work. They need to see action. They need real life results. Nature requires us to adapt, but it’s funny to me that we build impenetrable walls in our minds that prohibit us from changing our minds. How the hell did that happen? That seems like an evolutionary glitch, but […]
Investment vs. Exposure
One makes you feel cozy. The other makes you feel afraid. One makes you feel like you have control. The other makes you feel like danger is always lurking. One has trouble managing risk. The other only thinks about managing risk. One makes you feel part of something. The other makes you feel it’s all […]
No Pressure to Grow
Making money in the markets is hard enough without the added pressure of bloated business costs. The most important thing we can do as managers is to stick to our investing strategy (assuming of course that it’s a viable one). It doesn’t get easier when you maintain an expensive staff, rent out an office space […]
Last Year Doesn’t Matter
I’m a New York Giants fan. They over-achieved this season and made the playoffs, but were very much a mediocre team. A few bounces here and there and they would’ve missed the playoffs. They finished the season with a -6 score differential. Not very good. Everyone went crazy when they beat the 13-4 Vikings in […]
Trend-Following Balances Optimism and Pessimism
Absent a systematic and responsible plan, our emotions will run things. When shit hits the fan, we’ll be too scared to get in. When we hear some suited up analyst on television talking positively about the stock we own, we’ll be too hopeful to get out when the trend turns. Systematic trend-following can help us […]
What Are You Talking About?
Fundamental traders have been getting their teeth kicked in this year. Perusing through some Q3 letters recently, I see plenty of jargon explaining why performance has been so bad. “We are finding that our core holdings are experiencing greater than expected market headwinds in the face of a more challenging operating environment, inflation-driven costs pressures […]
Why Should I Invest With You vs. Them?
Sometimes, I get asked this question. My honest response: “I don’t know. Try us both out and see who prefer. If you don’t choose me, please let me know why. I’d love to know.” I believe choosing an investment manager is an intimate and personal choice. Surely I can point investors to my performance page […]
Crazy, Stupid, Trends
As I’ve said many times, I am an anti-fundamentalist. I do not comb through a company’s financials or industry reports to calculate the “right” price for a particular stock or market. I do not buy when I perceive the market value to be below what I think it should be. I believe all information gets […]
Avoiding Nice
I have nothing in common with a person who thinks it’s a good idea to hold on to META, for example, through a -70% decline because “it’s still a good company” or “I believe in Zuck!”. I’m OK with giving back some profits and sitting through a little bit of pain, but -70%? No. That’s […]
Motivation by Frustration
Working at my first job after college in 2007, I recall getting the idea to start a fund. It was mostly a “that would be cool” kind of idea. Very wishy washy and dreamy. My motivations turned serious though when the Financial Crisis unfolded. I lost money and my job at JP Morgan. I felt […]