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What’s New? How About What’s Old?

The pursuit for the new edge remains constant. The new indicator that predicts recessions or when bull markets will begin and end. The new processes that get rid of those pesky drawdowns or, hell, volatility altogether. New new new is better than old old old — at least that’s what many of us want to […]

Your Beliefs About Investing Likely Depends When You Start

We must not discount the effects recent performance has on our beliefs and behavior. What we know to be true may only have been true…lately. It’s a big world out there with a lot of history. There’s no telling what the future can bring, so holding on to beliefs makes you less adaptive and more […]

I’m Worried About Stocks

The speculative culture we’re currently living in has me a little worried for a lot of investors. The Schiller P/E ratio and Buffett Indicator are at/near all-time highs. Stock market optimism is through the roof. Berkshire’s cash balance as a percentage of total assets has hit new highs. The yield curve just un-inverted after two years. Inflation is ticking back up. […]

Anything for a Dollar

Have you seen the nonsense out there lately? Hawk Tua coin? Luigi Mangione coin? What else am I missing? Oh, right…FARTCOIN! Throw in the Tyson-Paul “fight” too. Another marketing flim-flam masquerading as a boxing match.   Hawk Tuah Coin  Luigi Mangione Coin  Fartcoin   Fartcoin has a market cap of $550 million. Five hundred fifty […]

“Fly Jets Long Enough, Something Like this Happens”

One of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies. For some reason this line from Top Gun, delivered by Tom Skerritt to Tom Cruise following Goose’s death, has always stuck with me. Maybe it was the way he said it. The tone. The matter-of-fact nature. The stoic undertone in such an emotional scene. […]

Industry Speak

Our industry is allergic to plain speaking. It’s addicted to bullshit buzzwords and terminology. The secret sauce (there is none) must be guarded, so the effort is directed towards jargon for the purpose of making people think you’re in-the-know. Confuse them so much that they have trouble asking questions. People want to believe there’s someone […]

Lost Decades Happen to All Investments

They’re not mythical. They happen. And no I am not suggesting a lost decade is coming soon to equities or any other major asset-class, but I want take a step back and provide some perspective because I think we’ve collectively forgotten that negative returns can and will happen. Gold, for example, spent a few decades […]

Make Something Happen

You hear it often. It’s well intentioned, of course. It can even serve as a motivator at times too. But it’s often used when impatience and frustration are capitulating. Coherent plans be damned. Forget long-term ramifications. Just make something happen! The pressure to perform is real, but it’s often self-induced by spending more than you […]

The Price of Admission

These are the kinds of market days where you learn whether you’re prepared or not. Are you comfortable with the risk you’re taking? Is the drawdown too steep for you? Do you have the urge to change your investment approach? Are you looking at other approaches to switch over to? Did you know that days […]

The 1 for 15 Slump

My son turns two today. He loves baseball and now knows he’s the same number as Derek Jeter. Hence, this Jeter-inspired post. Derek Jeter won one World Series title in his last 15 years in the league. Not many people think of him going 1 for his last 15. They remember the sheer dominance and […]

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