Words Cannot Save You
When people get nervous they embrace many unhealthy remedies. They do all they can to avoid feeling nervous. In the markets, a popular remedy is talking. People like to talk and talk and talk. And talk and talk and talk. When positions are going against them, people construct a story of why they bought XYZ […]
Pareidolia
Bulls and Bears suffer from the same affliction — pareidolia. That is, seeing something, typically a pattern or image, that isn’t there. Examples of pareidolia: Bulls see the current equities chart pattern as one that looks like a previous uptrend. From this, they forecast higher prices. Bears, as you can imagine, see the opposite. People […]
"Like Kids"
I had never read Lord of the Flies, but recently I’ve been intrigued by the old classics, so I picked it up. Early in the book, as the boys collect their bearings, they agree to make a signal fire to call for help. Thrilled by the prospect of no adults, and consequences as a result, […]
Make Room
Too much of one thing can ruin the whole thing. A chef must be mindful of the ingredients s/he uses so as to not overpower the dish with any one flavor. A weightlifter mustn’t overtrain any one body part. A healthy diet includes various food groups. An architect doesn’t design a house specifically for beauty, […]
Eventually…
Investing takes patience. And faith. Faith that opportunities will eventually come. From where? We don’t know. When? We don’t know that either. Many people, uncomfortable with eventually, develop and believe in narratives to address this discomfort. Stories provide a confidence that eventually does not. Eventually is a tough psychological position to operate from. Smart people […]
Show Your Work
The hardest thing is sticking around. Surviving in the investing business, hell in any business, is a success in and of itself. Navigating the market, employees, customers and most importantly, yourself, is tough. In the markets, greed and hubris are responsible for a lot of failures. Holding on too long. Risking too much. Trying to […]
Bubbles are Becoming the Norm
We don’t need an advanced degree to know that markets have gotten more bubbly lately. For those of us who watch the markets regularly, we’ve see an increasing number of parabolic moves over the past several years — from stocks to crypto to commodities. I believe an increasing activity of bubbles is a natural symptom […]
Planning vs. Preparing
My wife is pregnant with our first child. We’ve been talking a lot about the future lately — where we’re going to live, whether to hire help for the first few weeks or do it ourselves, when we’re going to start sleep-training, etc. This all sounds good. It may feel like we have a good […]
Dig for Inspiration
You can learn a lot about life by spending time in the garden. The dynamics and behaviors that exist within the garden are also present in our lives as well. Plants are not all that dissimilar from us. They want to survive and grow just like us. They attract pollinators with their beauty and smell […]