What’s New? How About What’s Old?

By Michael Melissinos

The pursuit for the new edge remains constant. The new indicator that predicts recessions or when bull markets will begin and end. The new processes that get rid of those pesky drawdowns or, hell, volatility altogether. New new new is better than old old old — at least that’s what many of us want to believe.

But what about taking a look at what’s been around? What’s stood the test of time? What has taken endless punches, but never died and kept on moving forward? What worked 100+ years ago and still works today?

Isn’t this more interesting?

We don’t know enough about this new edge. Is it even an edge at all? When it goes through a rough patch, is it simply this, a rough patch, or a signal that it has only gotten lucky and will not sustain over the long run?

There’s tremendous risk in the new edge even though the overwhelming emotions surrounding it feel good. Hope and arrogance being two prominent ones. We believe we’re ahead of the curve. That we’re smarter than our competitors and that we’re sitting on a pot of gold.

The new come and go. The old is old for a reason. It worked then. It works now.

Taking an interest in the old isn’t about romanticism either. It’s about filtering out the noise of today — the promises, the bright and shiny and the slick talkers. It’s about finding and adopting what actually works.

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